Shine a Light on Success

Why am I looking forward to MARPA’s Virtual Conference?  One reason is because of the message of hope.

We have a number of speakers who’ve lived through other aviation crises.

We know that past data is no guarantee of future paths; to paraphrase Tolstoy, all happy economies are alike; each unhappy economy is unhappy in its own way. Nonetheless, how the industry has approached past crises can give us some ideas about how best to navigate the dark paths that lie before us.

I exchanged emails with one of our speakers this morning.  He is a speaker who can offer a perspective about how air carriers have responded to crises in the past, and who can shine a light on what air carriers have found to be successful responses in the past.

Since the industry started grounding flights, I have been predicting that the aviation recovery period will take about three years after we really start flying again.  I based that on the public response to 9/11/2001 and a prediction that people will be afraid to fly for awhile (whether the fear is rational or not – we still must take into account).  My prediction is based on past experience and it might be wrong or it might be right.  The rest of the pundits have caught up with me on these predictions, and I see the three year number in a lot of articles, today.

But the length of time for recovery is not the most important factor on which to focus.  The most important factor is what we do during this recovery time to ensure we successfully recover and to help the industry get even stronger.

Members of the MARPA Air Carrier Committee have confirmed that PMA and DER repair will play a significant role in their post-Covid plans.  Journalist Sean Broderick and Expert Jonathon Berger have both predicted increased airline use of PMAs in the post-Covid environment.  This makes sense to air carriers because using FAA-approved PMA parts allows them to reduce spending without reducing safety.  This is great news for two reasons. First, I represent the PMA community so I think plans to buy more PMA parts are always a good thing.  But second and more important, focusing on win-win solutions for the air carrier industry like purchasing PMA parts helps to show us all that there is a path through the darkness.

And that is something we need right now.  We need to illuminate the path.

Sometimes you can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel.  The twists and turns obscure that goal.  And that is why we carry a flashlight.  Next week’s MARPA Virtual Conference will allow our speakers to share their flashlights.

The MARPA Virtual Conference is free, and will take place for two hours per day on May 27-28.