Changes in analyst models, rather than changes in the actual industry data, seem to be at the root of some recent gloomy projections about the industry. A look at the reason for the changes suggests that the industry outlook may be better than what some analysts are projecting.
Aerostrategy was well-known for their work tracking the MRO market and the rise of PMA within that market. When they were bought by SH&E, we expected them to continue providing the same great data and analysis.
At the 2012 Aviation Suppliers Conference, SH&E provided a rather gloomy outlook on the PMA market, as compared to the more optimistic outlooks that they had typically provided. More striking, the industry changes that they used to justify the changed outlook did not seem to merit the significant changes in the outlook, and they did not track with the positive sales news we have been hearing from our members.
I recently met with representatives from Aviation Week, and found that they had purchased the industry database and data models from Aerostrategy.
This explains why SH&E’s models seem to provide such different results from the earlier Aerostratgy models—they are based on different modeling heuristics and different data!
No—PMA has not suddenly gone into decline … it is just that the analysts are using different models and data, which is leading to different results. As they continue to build their data sets, they will likely be better able to accurately model the industry.
Discussion
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